Every day, we ask ourselves and our team to look beyond the day-to-day, to find the why. We always want to ensure we are looking ahead for our clients, understanding what is happening under the surface and how that is impacting client environments today, tomorrow and in a year.

In our new series, Under the Surface, we will be regularly exploring long-term dynamics, hidden determinants and counterfactuals that are shaping the debates creating social, economic and political change. Especially, how and where that is impacting businesses.

The series will range from short form analysis and single issue blogs to unique, proprietary research and longer form reports. The goal is to give you a better understanding of what is shaping the decisions we hear and read about everyday.

In our first in the series, we look at the pre-Budget landscape and what it means for politics in 2026 and beyond.

Budgets can often be seen in isolation, especially when, as with this one, they generate granular policy interest over a long period. However, we wanted to go beyond the rumours and U-turns to identify the factors and pressures driving not just those budget policy decisions but the fallout, inevitable policy shifts and political developments that will occur over the next six to twelve months.

What is behind the Budget decisions and how will they shape 2026? This Budget offers a lot of clues as to why it is just the start of a difficult year for the Government.