Foreword

A word from Gavin

The communications industry has always sold uncertainty. It has felt like the real amplifier of risks for boards and executive teams for as long as time can tell. While that ‘uncertainty’ continues — a new Government, the AI boom, wars in the Middle East — it has become less novel and more of a mainstay of our world. These events are not uncommon anymore and there will be more. We can be certain about that.

So, the question we have been asking is what does a permacrisis environment really mean for the Chairman or Chief Executive? Constant risk monitoring or a new reality that requires people to take bold decisions to achieve their corporate objectives.

We are seeing risk appetites reshaped, not taking more risky actions, but organisations responding to a generally more pressured environment by being more willing to, at least, assess bolder courses of action and often pursue it.

We see our role in that as delivering advantage through critical moments, flawlessly. Restructuring. Transactions. Refinancing. Government pressure. Regulatory exposure. Legislative change. With more of it happening, how do we ensure an organisation can take that bold action, be active not passive, in these scenarios? Genuine preparation, scenario planning. High quality, deeply thought research and evidence-led strategy development. A commitment to creative strategy and an appreciation of the need to actively shape the operating environment. The space for passive strategy is constricting.

We are looking forward to tackling the second half of the year with the same energy and creativity for our clients as the first.

I hope you enjoy our new half year review format and you get a good sense of the great work, thinking and growth that has been going on at Nepean in H1.

GD

In brief

Nepean News

Three new hires

We have grown the team with three new senior hires across advisory and research as we build capacity for the second half of the year.

Promotion in HR

A well-earned promotion within our HR function recognises the work behind Nepean’s growth and the strength of our team culture.

New clients onboarded

We welcomed several new clients to Nepean in H1, deepening our work across critical moments, transactions and regulatory exposure.

The Nepean Perspective

Five Trends for the Second Half

As we reach the half year point, we want to take a look at the five trends and issues we see Boards, Executive and Communications teams having to manage in the second half of the year.

New Government, New Impetus, No Money

We had long written in our pieces Heading Left and our Budget Review that this Government was on a collision course with reality. The public finances are simply getting worse, despite The Chancellor’s protestations, and the trade-offs have been getting more acute and visible since the heady days of the welfare reform climbdown. They have compounded and sapped authority. The last action of Keir Starmer’s Government was that in action: Defence or Welfare. The problem will not go away for a Burnham or any other Government. Genuine thinking needs to be done on the size of the state and the way that spend is balanced across priorities. So, for all the blue sky thinking from Burnham during the Makerfield by-election, he too is on course for a reality check. We envisage a new Labour Government taking the lesson on boldness. For us that means quicker policy delivery and change in consumer-relevant areas. It means, with the potential for Wes Streeting as Chancellor, a more fiscally attune approach to spending that actively addresses overspend in key areas to unlock investment in other areas. We can also hope that Manchesterism and its approach to public-private partnership comes back to Westminster. Key data point: Government debt is set to hit £3tn for the first time ever as spending on debt interest will be over a tenth of total government spend. [insert graph of welfare and interest spending projections]

New Government, New Impetus, No Money

We had long written in our pieces Heading Left and our Budget Review that this Government was on a collision course with reality.

The public finances are simply getting worse, despite The Chancellor’s protestations, and the trade-offs have been getting more acute and visible since the heady days of the welfare reform climbdown. They have compounded and sapped authority. The last action of Keir Starmer’s Government was that in action: Defence or Welfare. The problem will not go away for a Burnham or any other Government. Genuine thinking needs to be done on the size of the state and the way that spend is balanced across priorities. So, for all the blue sky thinking from Burnham during the Makerfield by-election, he too is on course for a reality check.

We envisage a new Labour Government taking the lesson on boldness. For us that means quicker policy delivery and change in consumer-relevant areas. It means, with the potential for Wes Streeting as Chancellor, a more fiscally attune approach to spending that actively addresses overspend in key areas to unlock investment in other areas. We can also hope that Manchesterism and its approach to public-private partnership comes back to Westminster.

Key data point

Government debt is set to hit £3tn for the first time ever as spending on debt interest will be over a tenth of total government spend. [insert graph of welfare and interest spending projections]

New Government, New Impetus, No Money

We had long written in our pieces Heading Left and our Budget Review that this Government was on a collision course with reality. The public finances are simply getting worse, despite The Chancellor’s protestations, and the trade-offs have been getting more acute and visible since the heady days of the welfare reform climbdown. They have compounded and sapped authority. The last action of Keir Starmer’s Government was that in action: Defence or Welfare. The problem will not go away for a Burnham or any other Government. Genuine thinking needs to be done on the size of the state and the way that spend is balanced across priorities. So, for all the blue sky thinking from Burnham during the Makerfield by-election, he too is on course for a reality check. We envisage a new Labour Government taking the lesson on boldness. For us that means quicker policy delivery and change in consumer-relevant areas. It means, with the potential for Wes Streeting as Chancellor, a more fiscally attune approach to spending that actively addresses overspend in key areas to unlock investment in other areas. We can also hope that Manchesterism and its approach to public-private partnership comes back to Westminster. Key data point: Government debt is set to hit £3tn for the first time ever as spending on debt interest will be over a tenth of total government spend. [insert graph of welfare and interest spending projections]

New Government, New Impetus, No Money

We had long written in our pieces Heading Left and our Budget Review that this Government was on a collision course with reality. The public finances are simply getting worse, despite The Chancellor’s protestations, and the trade-offs have been getting more acute and visible since the heady days of the welfare reform climbdown. They have compounded and sapped authority. The last action of Keir Starmer’s Government was that in action: Defence or Welfare. The problem will not go away for a Burnham or any other Government. Genuine thinking needs to be done on the size of the state and the way that spend is balanced across priorities. So, for all the blue sky thinking from Burnham during the Makerfield by-election, he too is on course for a reality check. We envisage a new Labour Government taking the lesson on boldness. For us that means quicker policy delivery and change in consumer-relevant areas. It means, with the potential for Wes Streeting as Chancellor, a more fiscally attune approach to spending that actively addresses overspend in key areas to unlock investment in other areas. We can also hope that Manchesterism and its approach to public-private partnership comes back to Westminster. Key data point: Government debt is set to hit £3tn for the first time ever as spending on debt interest will be over a tenth of total government spend. [insert graph of welfare and interest spending projections]

The ‘Techlash’ spreading anti-business sentiment

At the start of the year, the celebration of AI as a global gamechanger started to sour. While there are the obvious corporate benefits, the social impact is dawning. Whether it is job losses, copyright concerns for creatives or the question of energy consumption, there is a growing social movement opposing AI. That is spreading. In the UK it was originally confined to ‘big tech’ but now those associated – data centres [others?] – are feeling the heat and coming in for media criticism. Government policy has also turned away from these businesses. Now, the politics of anti-business is also coming back with the Green Party and factions of Labour stoking xxxxxxx

The ‘Techlash’ spreading anti-business sentiment

At the start of the year, the celebration of AI as a global gamechanger started to sour. While there are the obvious corporate benefits, the social impact is dawning. Whether it is job losses, copyright concerns for creatives or the question of energy consumption, there is a growing social movement opposing AI. That is spreading. In the UK it was originally confined to ‘big tech’ but now those associated – data centres [others?] – are feeling the heat and coming in for media criticism. Government policy has also turned away from these businesses. Now, the politics of anti-business is also coming back with the Green Party and factions of Labour stoking xxxxxxx

Saas Repositioning

Today’s corporate transactions exist in an increasingly connected world. Risks to value are myriad, from activist campaigns and pressure groups, to politicians and regulators.

Saas Repositioning

Today’s corporate transactions exist in an increasingly connected world. Risks to value are myriad, from activist campaigns and pressure groups, to politicians and regulators.

Leverage Shakeout & Private Credit Asset Focus

Business and politics have never been more intertwined. Understanding the machinations of Government and politics is vital to positioning and protecting your business.

Leverage Shakeout & Private Credit Asset Focus

Business and politics have never been more intertwined. Understanding the machinations of Government and politics is vital to positioning and protecting your business.

Regulation & Regulators as Government Policy Lever

The digital world defines business reputations and shapes their narratives, but standing out in this crowded “marketplace of eyeballs” is tougher than ever.

Regulation & Regulators as Government Policy Lever

The digital world defines business reputations and shapes their narratives, but standing out in this crowded “marketplace of eyeballs” is tougher than ever.

Recent Perspectives

Recent Insights

Short summaries with the key data behind our recent reports. Read the full report for the complete analysis.

Lessons from Denmark’s Farmyard Elections

Frederiksen’s survival proves global statesmanship doesn’t pay at the ballot box — a warning for Starmer.

Across the North Sea, Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats were again declared the Danes’ favourite party despite posting their weakest result since 1903 — saved by her stand against Trump over Greenland, but undone by a unique set of domestic issues: animal welfare, nitrates, the lingering mink cull. As the UK heads to the polls on May 7, are we really so different? Like Frederiksen, Starmer is more popular abroad than at home, and the management of global issues does not necessarily translate into domestic, electoral success. With voters fleeing to Reform on the right and the Greens on the left, Denmark’s result predicted bad news for Labour.

Key data point

Government debt is set to hit £3tn for the first time ever as spending on debt interest will be over a tenth of total government spend. [insert graph of welfare and interest spending projections]

Read Full Report

Lessons from Denmark’s Farmyard Elections

Frederiksen’s survival proves global statesmanship doesn’t pay at the ballot box — a warning for Starmer.

Key data point

Government debt is set to hit £3tn for the first time ever as spending on debt interest will be over a tenth of total government spend. [insert graph of welfare and interest spending projections]

Read Full Report

Lessons from Denmark’s Farmyard Elections

Frederiksen’s survival proves global statesmanship doesn’t pay at the ballot box — a warning for Starmer.

Key data point

Government debt is set to hit £3tn for the first time ever as spending on debt interest will be over a tenth of total government spend. [insert graph of welfare and interest spending projections]

Read Full Report

Lessons from Denmark’s Farmyard Elections

Frederiksen’s survival proves global statesmanship doesn’t pay at the ballot box — a warning for Starmer.

Key data point

Government debt is set to hit £3tn for the first time ever as spending on debt interest will be over a tenth of total government spend. [insert graph of welfare and interest spending projections]

Read Full Report

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Newinterestingcopytogoinhere!

Newinterestingcopytogoinhere!

The Half Year Review

The Half Year Review

A word from Gavin

GD

Nepean News

Three new hires

Promotion in HR

New clients onboarded

Five Trends for the Second Half

New Government, New Impetus, No Money

New Government, New Impetus, No Money

We had long written in our pieces Heading Left and our Budget Review that this Government was on a collision course with reality.

New Government, New Impetus, No Money

New Government, New Impetus, No Money

The ‘Techlash’ spreading anti-business sentiment

The ‘Techlash’ spreading anti-business sentiment

Saas Repositioning

Today’s corporate transactions exist in an increasingly connected world. Risks to value are myriad, from activist campaigns and pressure groups, to politicians and regulators.

Saas Repositioning

Today’s corporate transactions exist in an increasingly connected world. Risks to value are myriad, from activist campaigns and pressure groups, to politicians and regulators.

Leverage Shakeout & Private Credit Asset Focus

Business and politics have never been more intertwined. Understanding the machinations of Government and politics is vital to positioning and protecting your business.

Leverage Shakeout & Private Credit Asset Focus

Business and politics have never been more intertwined. Understanding the machinations of Government and politics is vital to positioning and protecting your business.

Regulation & Regulators as Government Policy Lever

The digital world defines business reputations and shapes their narratives, but standing out in this crowded “marketplace of eyeballs” is tougher than ever.

Regulation & Regulators as Government Policy Lever

The digital world defines business reputations and shapes their narratives, but standing out in this crowded “marketplace of eyeballs” is tougher than ever.

Recent Insights

Lessons from Denmark’s Farmyard Elections

Lessons from Denmark’s Farmyard Elections

Lessons from Denmark’s Farmyard Elections

Lessons from Denmark’s Farmyard Elections

Work with us

Work with us

Work with us