The most recent local elections looked like a clear win for Reform UK. For many, the party is the frontrunner for the next general election. Beyond the headline numbers on voting intention, though, the results are also a testbed to see what is really driving voter behaviour.

This initial paper, another in our Under the Surface Series, analyses the recent 2026 local election result against Lowell’s FVI and proprietary research conducted by Opinium. It is intended as a first step to explore the relationship between financial health and political behaviour and raises the important question: is financial vulnerability driving political fragmentation?